What does flattening the curve mean?
The "curve" researchers are referring to illustrates the increase in the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a certain period of time. This is not a real prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical model that's used to visualize the spread of the virus.
This animation explains well the example of such a model:
The "curve" researchers are referring to illustrates the increase in the projected number of people who will contract COVID-19 over a certain period of time. This is not a real prediction of how many people will definitely be infected, but a theoretical model that's used to visualize the spread of the virus.
This animation explains well the example of such a model:
GIF source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Covid-19-curves-graphic2-stopthespread-v3.gif#/media/File:Covid-19-curves-graphic2-stopthespread-v3.gif
The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. That is why we all need to take preventive measures not to lead to the health care system overload observed now in some European countries. Possibly the number of the cases will not be drastically different but the gradual increase over time will allow health care system to be able to help all who are in need.
Also, it will help the system be ready to assist everyone, not only the most serious cases. In the scenario without strong cooperation between the members of the community the health systems gets overloaded extremely fast and is not able to cope with all the infected people.
It is worth underlying that the overloaded health care system in the era of pandemic cannot also efficiently help in non-COVID19 related cases such as: car accident related injuries, heart attacks, broken legs, births. All the previously planned operations are cancelled, all the staff is concentrated only on stopping the spread of pandemic.
There is also economic rationale behind flattening the curve urge, as even if not everyone develops serious, life-threatening symptoms – we cannot afford being ill at the same time as someone needs to keep us all afloat. If too many people are ill at the same time - communities collapse.
Whenever referring to this model we have to remember that communities that experience the outbreak later in time are in a way luckier, as those ahead of us had been acting in the reality of less data, less clear instructions, less models as COVID-19 is a new virus and its characteristics concerning the way in which it spreads and the speed with which the epidemic develops had not been known not that long ago. But to benefit from this knowledge we all have to act accordingly now. Otherwise we will follow the steps of those who had not enough data. Not enough information.
Also, it will help the system be ready to assist everyone, not only the most serious cases. In the scenario without strong cooperation between the members of the community the health systems gets overloaded extremely fast and is not able to cope with all the infected people.
It is worth underlying that the overloaded health care system in the era of pandemic cannot also efficiently help in non-COVID19 related cases such as: car accident related injuries, heart attacks, broken legs, births. All the previously planned operations are cancelled, all the staff is concentrated only on stopping the spread of pandemic.
There is also economic rationale behind flattening the curve urge, as even if not everyone develops serious, life-threatening symptoms – we cannot afford being ill at the same time as someone needs to keep us all afloat. If too many people are ill at the same time - communities collapse.
Whenever referring to this model we have to remember that communities that experience the outbreak later in time are in a way luckier, as those ahead of us had been acting in the reality of less data, less clear instructions, less models as COVID-19 is a new virus and its characteristics concerning the way in which it spreads and the speed with which the epidemic develops had not been known not that long ago. But to benefit from this knowledge we all have to act accordingly now. Otherwise we will follow the steps of those who had not enough data. Not enough information.